SHFE Tin Fluctuated at Highs, Wait-and-See Sentiment Prevailed Amid Weak Supply and Demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on September 3, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated downward. It opened at 273,980 yuan/mt, down 380 yuan from the previous day, briefly rebounding above 274,500 yuan/mt before struggling to rise and eventually closing at 272,600 yuan/mt, a 0.64% decline. Market activity noticeably turned cautious, with both trading volume and open interest shrinking.

From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors intertwined, dampening market sentiment. The US August ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, marking six consecutive months in contraction territory. Although the new orders index unexpectedly rebounded into expansion, the employment index plunged to a record low of 43.8, heightening concerns about a US economic downturn and pressuring industrial product prices. The US dollar index recently regained strength, hovering near 104.3, further weighing on dollar-denominated commodities. Markets are closely watching the upcoming August non-farm payrolls data and the US Fed's rate-setting meeting later this month for clues on monetary policy. Federal funds futures indicate growing expectations for a September interest rate cut, which somewhat limits tin's downside room.

For the afternoon session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to hover at highs within a narrowing range. Resistance lies near the 275,000 yuan/mt psychological level, while key support sits around 271,000 yuan/mt. Short-term price drivers will continue reflecting the tug-of-war between macro sentiment and weak fundamentals.